Further north, strength of forcing and incoming intense mid-level jet may assist in a well organized MCS event, which consolidates over NE France with rapid movement towards Benelux (18Z onwards). A few concerns exist:
a) Potential scattered CI in the prefrontal air mass over Benelux during the afternoon hours (beneath diffluence) may spark a cluster of storms ahead of the incoming MCS, which may assist in more stable inflow air parcels for the approaching MCS
b) CAPE plume also fans out ahead of the MCS
c) strong subsidence overspreading the area of interest
However most models show a potential strong MCS event and given strength of forcing, we agree that this solution seems to be plausible. Hence, a swath of concentrated strong to severe wind gusts may evolve over Belgium, the Netherland and NW Germany after 18Z. An isolated tornado event can't be ruled out with increase of LL shear and lowering LCLs. Heavy rainfall may occur but progressive nature of storms probably precludes excessive rainfall events.
For now, we do not want to include a level 2 over Benelux with ongoing uncertainties. The level 1 risk becomes more conditional over E-/C-France.
a) Potential scattered CI in the prefrontal air mass over Benelux during the afternoon hours (beneath diffluence) may spark a cluster of storms ahead of the incoming MCS, which may assist in more stable inflow air parcels for the approaching MCS
b) CAPE plume also fans out ahead of the MCS
c) strong subsidence overspreading the area of interest
However most models show a potential strong MCS event and given strength of forcing, we agree that this solution seems to be plausible. Hence, a swath of concentrated strong to severe wind gusts may evolve over Belgium, the Netherland and NW Germany after 18Z. An isolated tornado event can't be ruled out with increase of LL shear and lowering LCLs. Heavy rainfall may occur but progressive nature of storms probably precludes excessive rainfall events.
For now, we do not want to include a level 2 over Benelux with ongoing uncertainties. The level 1 risk becomes more conditional over E-/C-France.
