Apparently, the intense and progressive vorticity lobe and attendant synoptic boundaries dictate convective initiation (CI). The mid/upper streamline pattern becomes supportive for prolonged/deep lift over NE France/Benelux, with diffluent pattern just ahead of the main trough axis. In fact, unusually strong diffluence is expected over Benelux during the evening hours in response to a negative tilted trough evolution over UK.
A step down to the surface shows an eastward moving occlusion, coupled to the sharp mid-level trough axis, which also increases lift for DMC. Timing of the trough axis/occlusion will be 15Z over C-France, approaching Benelux from the SW at 18Z onwards. Despite overall favorable forcing, we keep an eye on the unusual trough axis configuration (E-W alignement during the evening hours) over UK, which may place NE France/Benelux beneath intense subsidence during the time frame with peak DMC activity.
A step down to the surface shows an eastward moving occlusion, coupled to the sharp mid-level trough axis, which also increases lift for DMC. Timing of the trough axis/occlusion will be 15Z over C-France, approaching Benelux from the SW at 18Z onwards. Despite overall favorable forcing, we keep an eye on the unusual trough axis configuration (E-W alignement during the evening hours) over UK, which may place NE France/Benelux beneath intense subsidence during the time frame with peak DMC activity.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 21-06-2012 02:55
Don't be pushed by your problems, be led by your dreams!
