Kamchatkan ridge still in full control of the hemispheric pattern right now, more than facilitating our mid Atlantic ridge to remain despite the wobbles of NWP. No real prospect of rapid change, these changes expected to come off the back of a strengthening Siberian High / Pacific low which actually won't change things too much. We are progressing nicely through that logical progression following a rapid advancement of Eurasian snowcover.
GEFS day 11-15 mean depicts this nicely:
For those who look at the hemispheric view, this general trend in modelling hasn't changed. The models are struggling to deal with rising AO index value (tight negative height anomaly restricted to the Arctic Ocean with little cooperation outside of this), and this influences the placement of the mid Atlantic ridge, but it will not remove it.
Over the next few weeks, we should see a 10 day periodicity in the waxing and waning of blocking signal (placement further north of the mid Atlantic ridge) tied into mountain torque activity. The next MJO wave entering the western hemisphere will signal a step change in the blocking signal, full Greenland block or more signifivant amplification expected (late November).
Such a strong anomaly (tied into Rossby Wave activity in the western Pacific interacting with the mid and high latitude meridional flows) that its effectively setting the downstream wavelength pattern of ridges and troughs.
Might be worth keeping an eye on CFS v2 week 4 forecast update today to see if picks the ridge developing around Greenland / Iceland end of the month which is the expected response in the atmosphere as we head into December. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74817-model-output-discussion-2610-2012/page__st__300#entry2394749
GEFS day 11-15 mean depicts this nicely:
For those who look at the hemispheric view, this general trend in modelling hasn't changed. The models are struggling to deal with rising AO index value (tight negative height anomaly restricted to the Arctic Ocean with little cooperation outside of this), and this influences the placement of the mid Atlantic ridge, but it will not remove it.
Over the next few weeks, we should see a 10 day periodicity in the waxing and waning of blocking signal (placement further north of the mid Atlantic ridge) tied into mountain torque activity. The next MJO wave entering the western hemisphere will signal a step change in the blocking signal, full Greenland block or more signifivant amplification expected (late November).
Such a strong anomaly (tied into Rossby Wave activity in the western Pacific interacting with the mid and high latitude meridional flows) that its effectively setting the downstream wavelength pattern of ridges and troughs.
Might be worth keeping an eye on CFS v2 week 4 forecast update today to see if picks the ridge developing around Greenland / Iceland end of the month which is the expected response in the atmosphere as we head into December. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74817-model-output-discussion-2610-2012/page__st__300#entry2394749
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."