Ik frequenteer regelmatig de Engelse fora en wat je daar soms ziet aan wintervoorspellingen doet me toch de wenkbrauwen fronsen.
Zij beperken zich niet tot wat algemene zaken als een "de maand december zal zacht zijn" enz... maar gaan behoorlijk in detail.
De meesten geven zelfs geen uitleg van hoe ze tot die voorspelling komen. Nog verwondelijker is dat er slechts weinig kritiek komt op dergelijke voorspellingen, meer zelfs het wordt aangemoedigd.
Een voorbeeldje, (die heeft het een klein beetje onderbouwd) maar dan nog...en het laatste zinnetje spreekt ook wel boekdelen.
Hey guys,
Well, I've been bringing this together for a few weeks, but given my history with LRF's, DO NOT take this as gospel. And if it all goes wrong, don't lynch me.
So, as we go into December I think we will proabaly have some pretty cold air left over from a cold snap that will have affected us during the last week of November. Very queickly though, the cold air will be swept away as deep area's of low pressure begin to sweap across the Country. I then expect the first half of December to be mild, but stormy, with deep lows giving severe gales at times. The middle part of the month will I feel, start to become colder as pressure rise's to the North and low pressure starts to take a more Southerly track. There could be substantial snowfall across much of Scotland, and perhaps in other area's too. By the 20th I think most places will be bitterly cold and frosty, but dry. Towards Chirstmas I expect the Atlantic to push more deep area's of low pressure across the UK, giving a very stormy, but mild Christmas. Don't be surprised if around Christmas we see severe gales, and I think theres a chance that could last towards the New Year.
Overall a mild month, temps 0.5-1.0'c over CET.
January I think will start stormy, with deep area's of low pressure giving wet and windy spells, with severe gales at times. This should only last for the first week, after which I think high pressure will start to take over. High pressure will move in from the West, but it will be a displaced Azores High, so don't expect the air to be that cold-There will more than likely be a lot of low cloud trapped under the high, so I think we're basically looking at a very dull, dry, quiet spell through the bulk of January. Pretty chilly by day, but with lots of cloud around, not much frost at night-Though as always there could be some. Towards the very end of the month, I think high pressure will slip out towards the West, pulling in some colder Northerly winds for the end of the month.
Temps around average, but possibly slightly below. So, we're looking at around 0.0-0.5'c below the CET.
February will have a cold start with Northerly winds, hard over night frosts and some snow showers. Most of the showers will be in the North, but there could be some in other area's too. Quickly high prerssue will again move back in from the West, cutting off the Northerly and giving us all a short spell of frosty, but dry weather. By around the second week, I think high pressure will start to move South to become centered across France. This could give us some exceptionally mild weather as we move into the middle of the month. It will definatly feel spring-like and with the high close enough to prevent low pressure from getting in most places should have some lovely weather.
The second half of the month will see the high pressure continuing to sit to the South. Low pressure will bring increasingly wet and windy weather to Northern parts, and by the end of the month wind and rain could start to get into Southern parts of country, by which time cooler air could be bringing snow showers back into Scotland.
Overall temps will be above average, about 1.0-1.5 above the CET.
March could be quite a cold month, IMO, with some frost and snow-especially during the first half.
I realise this isn't a very exciting forecast, but in all honesty, this is my view, based on rather disappointing autumn pressure charts, above average SST's to the North and a contining run of over average months that has been on-going since 1997.
Remember though, my hopeless record with LRF's, and this isn't very detailed. Basically theres a highly good chance of the complete opposite happening.
Quote selectie