Dus dat weet ik niet.
Een van de auteurs heeft dit geschreven.
I'm one of the authors of the research. I' can't speak english well, so i can do only a short comment. The most important theoretical construct is the strong correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult"). So the correlation between OPI - winter AO is the numerical synthesisis of this strong correspondenc. In this page you can see some of this correspondens (the page is still incomplete):
http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7371.0 Misschien dat Jef met zijn Italiaans wat helderheid over kan geven
As said, the correlation betwwen SAI and winter AO is "only" a derivative correlation. In fact snow cover shedule and location change in function of the october pattern, that is correlated with winter AO (for this reason the SCE is not correlated, because it doesn't reflect the features of october pattern).For these reason in some particular season, like 2005-2006, the correlation SAI-winter AO is less good: in this season the october patter was very good, but its particular configuration wasn't positive for snow cover advance (SAI).
To conclude it is important to remark that there is a STRONG correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult") and that the correlation between snow cover-winter AO is only a derivative correlation. I think that this discovery can be useful in order to improve the GCM (climatic global model).
However the resaerch will traslate into english and after will be issued, so that all you can read. Moreover I tell you that currently the OPI is abaut +1/+1.5, so the winter will be probably a AO++ winter.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/
Een van de auteurs heeft dit geschreven.
I'm one of the authors of the research. I' can't speak english well, so i can do only a short comment. The most important theoretical construct is the strong correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult"). So the correlation between OPI - winter AO is the numerical synthesisis of this strong correspondenc. In this page you can see some of this correspondens (the page is still incomplete):
http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7371.0 Misschien dat Jef met zijn Italiaans wat helderheid over kan geven
As said, the correlation betwwen SAI and winter AO is "only" a derivative correlation. In fact snow cover shedule and location change in function of the october pattern, that is correlated with winter AO (for this reason the SCE is not correlated, because it doesn't reflect the features of october pattern).For these reason in some particular season, like 2005-2006, the correlation SAI-winter AO is less good: in this season the october patter was very good, but its particular configuration wasn't positive for snow cover advance (SAI).
To conclude it is important to remark that there is a STRONG correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult") and that the correlation between snow cover-winter AO is only a derivative correlation. I think that this discovery can be useful in order to improve the GCM (climatic global model).
However the resaerch will traslate into english and after will be issued, so that all you can read. Moreover I tell you that currently the OPI is abaut +1/+1.5, so the winter will be probably a AO++ winter.
En hoe komen ze aan die correlatiecoëfficiënt?
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 06-11-2013 13:29
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