" Well, I am monitoring the GEFS output the whole time, and lets just say that I am mainly ignoring it. The model has the top at 2mb. That is too low to grab onto the strong wave breaking in the later stages, of which about 50% is in the lower mesosphere. biggrin.png
Here is how the GEFS mean looks like:
gefs6.png
As I have said before, the only ensemble output that I have any "faith" in, is the ECMWF EPS. It is the only ensemble output that meets the required "pre-processing" conditions to be a viable option. Unless GEFS is right and nothing will happen. biggrin.png Personally I have tested GEFS all this time, and it doesnt seem appropriate as the wave amplitude increases. So my bet would be on the general trend of the operational GFS runs. You can now trust either my opinion which I backed up, or the general "weight" that people put on ensemble forecasts. smile.png You have to realize that we are dealing with a different "level" of numerical forecasting here, which unlike its tropospheric counterpart, has much more sensitivity to the model depth.
But of course the main GEFS test will come in the next 2 weeks. smile.png
Best regards. "
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