Judah Cohen heeft een update gegeven van zijn visie voor de komende tijd.
http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
Eurasian snow cover has advanced rapidly the first four weeks of October (Figure 6), though there has been notable melting in western Eurasia the past few days. Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) will be well above normal for the month. The snow advance index (SAI; which is more strongly correlated with the AO than the SCE) is even higher. We can confidently predict that both values will be top five over the observational period. This is a robust prediction of a negative winter AO and an overall cold winter across the Northern Hemisphere continents. Unlike last year, both the SCE and the SAI are consistent, which increases our confidence in the winter AO forecast. We consider the transition from October to November as critical to the transfer of the signal from the snow cover to the atmosphere. So far the hemispheric circulation pattern has been consistent with extensive Eurasian snow cover but it is still very early.
Quote selectie