Al voor het zevende jaar op rij is er een stratosfeertopic op Netweather. Het roemruchte Engelse weerforum. Net als voorgaande jaren heeft Chionomaniac een overzicht gegeven van de wetenschappelijke stand van zaken op het gebied van de stratosfeer. Indrukwekkend! Zie hieronder een gedeelte uit zijn bijdrage.
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84231-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20152016/
The reported incidence of SSW in EL Nino years is roughly around 60% - which is more than ENSO neutral years. A big question remains however, whether the ENSO wave 1 pattern will override the negative HT effect that the wQBO with the reducing solar ouput link brings. And even if it does, and we do achieve a displacement SSW, the next question is how will this affect the Atlantic sector of the Northern Hemisphere? My suspicion is that even if we do achieve a SSW this winter it will be in the second half, and also any subsequent blocking may not be quite right for the UK and, that if we were to achieve a –ve NAO, any block will be nearer Canada than Iceland, leaving the Atlantic door ajar. It is still too early this winter to be making any definitive forecasts – the next 6 weeks are very important stratospherically, determining in what vein winter will start. Already we are seeing a forecast of weak wave activity disrupting the growing vortex and it will be interesting to see if this is repeated during November.
And it will be especially interesting to see what occurs in November and what is forecast for December before winter starts because typical strong El nino wQBO stratospheric composite analogues tell an opposite story. They suggest that the stratospheric vortex will be disrupted and weaker early in the winter before gaining in strength by February.
De compostiejaren voorspellen weinig 'goeds'. Misschien hebben we het hoogtepunt van deze winter al afgelopen week gehad
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https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84231-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20152016/
The reported incidence of SSW in EL Nino years is roughly around 60% - which is more than ENSO neutral years. A big question remains however, whether the ENSO wave 1 pattern will override the negative HT effect that the wQBO with the reducing solar ouput link brings. And even if it does, and we do achieve a displacement SSW, the next question is how will this affect the Atlantic sector of the Northern Hemisphere? My suspicion is that even if we do achieve a SSW this winter it will be in the second half, and also any subsequent blocking may not be quite right for the UK and, that if we were to achieve a –ve NAO, any block will be nearer Canada than Iceland, leaving the Atlantic door ajar. It is still too early this winter to be making any definitive forecasts – the next 6 weeks are very important stratospherically, determining in what vein winter will start. Already we are seeing a forecast of weak wave activity disrupting the growing vortex and it will be interesting to see if this is repeated during November.
And it will be especially interesting to see what occurs in November and what is forecast for December before winter starts because typical strong El nino wQBO stratospheric composite analogues tell an opposite story. They suggest that the stratospheric vortex will be disrupted and weaker early in the winter before gaining in strength by February.
De compostiejaren voorspellen weinig 'goeds'. Misschien hebben we het hoogtepunt van deze winter al afgelopen week gehad
&
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."