-> Aangezien we in een dalende fase zitten, is de kans groot op een postieve NAO.
Using 13 solar cycles (1869–2009), we study winter surface temperatures and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during four different phases of the sunspot cycle: minimum, ascending, maximum, and declining phase. We find significant differences in the temperature patterns between the four cycle phases, which indicates a solar cycle modulation of winter surface temperatures. However, the clearest pattern of the temperature anomalies is not found during sunspot maximum or minimum, but during the declining phase, when the temperature pattern closely resembles the pattern found during positive NAO. Moreover, we find the same pattern during the low sunspot activity cycles of 100 years ago, suggesting that the pattern is largely independent of the overall level of solar activity.
Het positieve NAO verhaal van Chio krijgt dus ook vanuit deze visie support. Net als de lange termijn modellen, die aansturen op zonaal patroon in de winter.
Is er dan geen 'hoop'? Ja, wel Joe B. geeft aan dat het erg koud gaat worden, net als James Madden &
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