Hier toch weer andere 'feiten'.
Volgens het laatste IPCC-rapport zit de klimaatsgevoeligheid tussen 1,5 en 4,5 graden.
De ondergrens is naar beneden bijgesteld op basis van instrumentele data (de 'feiten').
De 11 graden is niet realistisch.
The AR5 assesses ECS as likely to be 1.5°C to 4.5°C. ECS is extremely unlikely to be less than 1°C
and very unlikely to be greater than 6°C.
This compares with the Fourth Assessment Report, which assessed ECS as likely to be 2 to 4.5°C.
Compared with the Fourth Assessment Report, the lower boundary of the ECS likely range has lowered
from 2°C to 1.5°C, meaning slightly lower climate sensitivity is included in the ‘likely’ range than it was
six years ago. The AR5 sensitivity range is the same as that of the Third Assessment Report (2001),
highlighting the overall consistency of the assessment from the literature over more than a decade. The
lower end revision follows some recent studies finding a lower temperature range from new estimates of
temperature changes and ocean heat uptake.
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