Hij geeft aan dat hij een T-S-T patroon ziet (zie zijn onderzoek van 2007). Vergelijkbaar patroon als 2010. Maar toen een eQBO en El Nino. Dat maakt de kans op een SSW kleiner dan toen.
Na deze koudere periode (hij spreekt over het NH) volgt een periode met mild weer. Waarna hij verschillende scenario's aanwijst, waarover pas in de loop van de komende 2-4 weken duidelijkheid komt.
Ik heb het al eerder gezegd. En misschien een zeurpiet. Maar laten we aub blij zijn met iemand als Cohen en wees zorgvuldig met wat hij niet en wel zegt. Je ziet nu al op het forum scepsis. Onterecht. Als je de moeite neemt om alles te lezen. En weet dat dit wetenschap in ontwikkeling is.
My expectations are that after the current cold snap winds down in two to three weeks and it is likely to be followed by a period of milder weather. The milder period will likely span from the end of the tropospheric precursor until the stratospheric PV is fully disrupted. Following the PV disruption (which will be significant even if it does not achieve MMW criteria, similar to what happened in late November/early December), an overall colder pattern will become re-established for much of the remainder of the winter across the NH. This includes the Eastern US, Europe and East Asia though usually not all three.
There are other possible scenarios. One scenario is that WAFz/poleward heat transport becomes more active but rather than being fully absorbed in the polar stratosphere it is partially or fully reflected towards the equator. If the WAFz is partially absorbed and partially reflected then the PV is continuously perturbed but a significant SSW is never achieved. This could potentially set up a winter similar to 2013/14 where the stratospheric PV was repeatedly elongated that favored cross-polar flow and a cold US but warm Europe. A second alternative scenario is that most of the WAFz is reflected towards the equator and the stratospheric PV is strengthened rather than weakened. This then leads to a fully coupled strong PV in the stratosphere and the troposphere and after the current cold spell, the remainder of the winter is relatively mild across the NH. These three scenarios are all possible in my mind as well as others and I believe t the next several weeks are critical for which scenario emerges.
Na deze koudere periode (hij spreekt over het NH) volgt een periode met mild weer. Waarna hij verschillende scenario's aanwijst, waarover pas in de loop van de komende 2-4 weken duidelijkheid komt.
Ik heb het al eerder gezegd. En misschien een zeurpiet. Maar laten we aub blij zijn met iemand als Cohen en wees zorgvuldig met wat hij niet en wel zegt. Je ziet nu al op het forum scepsis. Onterecht. Als je de moeite neemt om alles te lezen. En weet dat dit wetenschap in ontwikkeling is.
My expectations are that after the current cold snap winds down in two to three weeks and it is likely to be followed by a period of milder weather. The milder period will likely span from the end of the tropospheric precursor until the stratospheric PV is fully disrupted. Following the PV disruption (which will be significant even if it does not achieve MMW criteria, similar to what happened in late November/early December), an overall colder pattern will become re-established for much of the remainder of the winter across the NH. This includes the Eastern US, Europe and East Asia though usually not all three.
There are other possible scenarios. One scenario is that WAFz/poleward heat transport becomes more active but rather than being fully absorbed in the polar stratosphere it is partially or fully reflected towards the equator. If the WAFz is partially absorbed and partially reflected then the PV is continuously perturbed but a significant SSW is never achieved. This could potentially set up a winter similar to 2013/14 where the stratospheric PV was repeatedly elongated that favored cross-polar flow and a cold US but warm Europe. A second alternative scenario is that most of the WAFz is reflected towards the equator and the stratospheric PV is strengthened rather than weakened. This then leads to a fully coupled strong PV in the stratosphere and the troposphere and after the current cold spell, the remainder of the winter is relatively mild across the NH. These three scenarios are all possible in my mind as well as others and I believe t the next several weeks are critical for which scenario emerges.
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."