Één van de conclusies uit het rapport:
In the western region, neither observations nor climate models show a long-term change in low April-June precipitation, suggesting that climate change did not play a role in the meteorological drought at the regional scale. However, for PET (potential evapotranspiration), both observations and climate models show strong increases over the region, leading to increasingly likely and intense agricultural and ecological drought. The synthesis of these lines of evidence suggests that such highly evaporative conditions as observed in April-June 2026 have become about 80 times more likely, or equivalently about 7% more intense.
Over the eastern region, observed precipitation changes are sensitive to the timeframe considered. For the April-June period there is a drying trend, there is little long-term change over the 6-month January-June period, and the 12-month totals from July-June show a slight increasing trend. Considering the 6-month accumulations, climate models show an increase stronger than observed, suggesting an overall albeit statistically insignificant drying trend. On the contrary, trends in PET conditions are increasing strongly across all timeframes. For the 6-month totals, the synthesis of observations and climate models suggests that such highly evaporative conditions as observed during January-June 2026 have become about 40 times more likely, or equivalently about 8% more intense.
(Nederland valt in het attributie-onderzoek overigens onder de 'oostelijke' regio)
74-pagina's lang rapport van de World Weather Attribution: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/entities/publication/1ec6813c-972f-4c93-a845-b10311b5cd39