Zeer gewaagde voorspelling en een zeer hoog "ik klop op mijn borst"-gehalte.
Bron: TWO-forum
Hello everyone, I am Richard and I have recently been browsing through this forum and thought that it was the most appropriate place to post an very important message that I am about to write.
I am a highly experienced forecaster who has a special and unique method of forecasting which I make using a variation of synoptic analyses, variables in meteorological equations, synoptic matching and global factors. I have an Msc in Applied Meteorology and Climatology and currently hold two occupations, one as an accountant, another as a worker of a very small, secret weather organisation in North London, which at the moment I am not obliged to name. It is a new company, which was opened this year and has enjoyed a very high level of accuracy. Due to this accuracy, this organisation will soon be employing more workers and will become openly available to the public next year with a new website and various data sources. My own recent personal forecasting accomplishments include successfully predicting the hottest calendar month on record this year, a September which was warmer than August, the hottest May-Oct period on record and the coldest November to March period for 10 years in southern England last winter.
In the last few winters I have been successful in predicting fairly mild temperatures, with a prediction for a more average winter last year, which was particularly accurate in terms of monthly forecasts.
Now I am sure most of you would be expecting a continuation of the exceptional warmth that we have seen in the last few months with a mild November and December. However, I have been revising the pressure patterns for each month of 2006 and during many occasions there has been extensive blocking, which has frequently occurred to the north of the UK. Along with numerous other factors, which I can't go into detail, I have come to the conclusion that I must warn you all that next month is going to be bitterly cold with a great deal of snow. December 2006 will be characterised by extensive and prolonged northern blocking, a high frequency of easterly and northerly airstreams over western Europe and a notably severe spell of wintry weather, which I predict will occur between Christmas and the New Year. I predict it will be the coldest month since at least January 1987. It is likely to be the coldest December since 1981, perhaps even 1890.
I am more certain about next month than I have ever been about any of the forecasts that I have issued before. The continuous warmth since late April will simply burn itself out into a very dramatic and extremely cold and wintry end to 2006.
The extensive northern blocking is already beginning to take shape; you will have noticed in the charts a distinctively large area of high pressure over northwestern Russia. This will become predominant for several weeks and will begin to influence our weather by about November 25th, when I expect the prolonged cold spell to set in for December. I would have posted this message sooner if I had found this site any quicker.
Temperatures will be cold or very cold in all areas throughout the month, with several nights falling below –10c in many inland destinations across England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland. Snow will also be widespread across the country, with many places seeing snow cover for much of the month, again with the worst of the wintry weather occurring towards the end of the month. I find it quite probable that many lakes and slow moving rivers will freeze up as I expect an extensive amount of ice days in most regions during the month.
Overall temperatures may be as much as 3 or 4c below average and any mild or even average temperatures will be very brief and minimal .To put it simplistically I expect a repeating pattern of high pressure to the north, moving south over the UK giving way to Arctic northerlies, then high pressure rebuilding to the north and the pattern continuing. I expect substantial blocking over Greenland and/or Scandinavia which temporarily relocates over the UK, maintaining the cold theme. Essentially this pressure pattern diverts the jet stream 500-100 miles north of its usual track, or 500-1000 miles south, also blocking Atlantic lows from entering the UK or diverts their tracking to the south of us, which of course creates major potential for snowfall.
The chances of a White Christmas look promising as a result of this forecast, however due to the definition from the Met Office, it does have to snow on Christmas Day itself for it to be an official White Christmas – we’ll have to see if that happens or not!
Be prepared for next month, make sure you buy a sledge if you don’t have one, also make sure you have some gloves with you as it really is going to be a freezing December.
I am contacting the Meteorological Office and other weather organisations who I will be working for from the start of next Spring. Please spread the message to everyone else. I am extremely worried about next month as I fear that transport could be seriously affected by the severe weather, especially after many years of generally mild winters and it is vital that an early warning is given.
A brief precursor to January and February is that I do not expect a winter on the level of 1962-1963 and I do not expect January and February to be as cold as next month. However, it is difficult at this range to predict further than six weeks.
It is not in the best interests of anyone to be given a weather forecast which is not made without at least a reasonable level of confidence, therefore I must stress that I have very high confidence in this prediction and can assure you that I have made every effort possible to make sure this forecast is not in any way misleading.
Don't expect the models to be reliable in the next few weeks, as this is an extremely difficult situation for any of the forecasting models to predict. However, I am hopeful that this post has got your attention and has shed some light on what to expect next month.
Thank-you for taking the time to read this message, I wish everyone a happy Christmas and New Year. I will have a lot of work to do with Christmas shopping and contacting other organisations of the forthcoming weather so I may not be able to post on here much.
I value your views so don't hesitate to be critical. I will try to reply to any queries that you may have in the next few weeks and I will provide an update on my forecast at the end of November.
You heard it from me first.
All the best,
Rick Leming
Bron: TWO-forum
Hello everyone, I am Richard and I have recently been browsing through this forum and thought that it was the most appropriate place to post an very important message that I am about to write.
I am a highly experienced forecaster who has a special and unique method of forecasting which I make using a variation of synoptic analyses, variables in meteorological equations, synoptic matching and global factors. I have an Msc in Applied Meteorology and Climatology and currently hold two occupations, one as an accountant, another as a worker of a very small, secret weather organisation in North London, which at the moment I am not obliged to name. It is a new company, which was opened this year and has enjoyed a very high level of accuracy. Due to this accuracy, this organisation will soon be employing more workers and will become openly available to the public next year with a new website and various data sources. My own recent personal forecasting accomplishments include successfully predicting the hottest calendar month on record this year, a September which was warmer than August, the hottest May-Oct period on record and the coldest November to March period for 10 years in southern England last winter.
In the last few winters I have been successful in predicting fairly mild temperatures, with a prediction for a more average winter last year, which was particularly accurate in terms of monthly forecasts.
Now I am sure most of you would be expecting a continuation of the exceptional warmth that we have seen in the last few months with a mild November and December. However, I have been revising the pressure patterns for each month of 2006 and during many occasions there has been extensive blocking, which has frequently occurred to the north of the UK. Along with numerous other factors, which I can't go into detail, I have come to the conclusion that I must warn you all that next month is going to be bitterly cold with a great deal of snow. December 2006 will be characterised by extensive and prolonged northern blocking, a high frequency of easterly and northerly airstreams over western Europe and a notably severe spell of wintry weather, which I predict will occur between Christmas and the New Year. I predict it will be the coldest month since at least January 1987. It is likely to be the coldest December since 1981, perhaps even 1890.
I am more certain about next month than I have ever been about any of the forecasts that I have issued before. The continuous warmth since late April will simply burn itself out into a very dramatic and extremely cold and wintry end to 2006.
The extensive northern blocking is already beginning to take shape; you will have noticed in the charts a distinctively large area of high pressure over northwestern Russia. This will become predominant for several weeks and will begin to influence our weather by about November 25th, when I expect the prolonged cold spell to set in for December. I would have posted this message sooner if I had found this site any quicker.
Temperatures will be cold or very cold in all areas throughout the month, with several nights falling below –10c in many inland destinations across England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland. Snow will also be widespread across the country, with many places seeing snow cover for much of the month, again with the worst of the wintry weather occurring towards the end of the month. I find it quite probable that many lakes and slow moving rivers will freeze up as I expect an extensive amount of ice days in most regions during the month.
Overall temperatures may be as much as 3 or 4c below average and any mild or even average temperatures will be very brief and minimal .To put it simplistically I expect a repeating pattern of high pressure to the north, moving south over the UK giving way to Arctic northerlies, then high pressure rebuilding to the north and the pattern continuing. I expect substantial blocking over Greenland and/or Scandinavia which temporarily relocates over the UK, maintaining the cold theme. Essentially this pressure pattern diverts the jet stream 500-100 miles north of its usual track, or 500-1000 miles south, also blocking Atlantic lows from entering the UK or diverts their tracking to the south of us, which of course creates major potential for snowfall.
The chances of a White Christmas look promising as a result of this forecast, however due to the definition from the Met Office, it does have to snow on Christmas Day itself for it to be an official White Christmas – we’ll have to see if that happens or not!
Be prepared for next month, make sure you buy a sledge if you don’t have one, also make sure you have some gloves with you as it really is going to be a freezing December.
I am contacting the Meteorological Office and other weather organisations who I will be working for from the start of next Spring. Please spread the message to everyone else. I am extremely worried about next month as I fear that transport could be seriously affected by the severe weather, especially after many years of generally mild winters and it is vital that an early warning is given.
A brief precursor to January and February is that I do not expect a winter on the level of 1962-1963 and I do not expect January and February to be as cold as next month. However, it is difficult at this range to predict further than six weeks.
It is not in the best interests of anyone to be given a weather forecast which is not made without at least a reasonable level of confidence, therefore I must stress that I have very high confidence in this prediction and can assure you that I have made every effort possible to make sure this forecast is not in any way misleading.
Don't expect the models to be reliable in the next few weeks, as this is an extremely difficult situation for any of the forecasting models to predict. However, I am hopeful that this post has got your attention and has shed some light on what to expect next month.
Thank-you for taking the time to read this message, I wish everyone a happy Christmas and New Year. I will have a lot of work to do with Christmas shopping and contacting other organisations of the forthcoming weather so I may not be able to post on here much.
I value your views so don't hesitate to be critical. I will try to reply to any queries that you may have in the next few weeks and I will provide an update on my forecast at the end of November.
You heard it from me first.
All the best,
Rick Leming
"Koersen, dat is stampen en afzien tot ge niet meer weet van welke parochie ge zijt." (Briek Schotte)
