Storm Alert issued at 16 Oct, 2008 3:00 GMT
Intense Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
the British Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Anguilla
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Guadeloupe
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
the Netherlands Antilles
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
St. Kitts and Nevis
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Puerto Rico
probability for TS is 80% currently
Antigua and Barbuda
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Montserrat
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with your requested change(s).
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with "unsubscribe" in your email subject line.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
Intense Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
the British Virgin Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Anguilla
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Guadeloupe
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
the Netherlands Antilles
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
St. Kitts and Nevis
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
Puerto Rico
probability for TS is 80% currently
Antigua and Barbuda
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Montserrat
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with your requested change(s).
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with "unsubscribe" in your email subject line.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
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