Interesting winter lurking for Europe.. biased cold in the east and a battle in the west!
I have sent my private clientele an update on the U.S. winter, which continues to ride along the lines I have been outlining for them since early summer and we went public on July 15. One can't help but notice more U.S. forecasters thinking that the U.S. winter in the South and East is going to be cold. However, this is part of a bigger grand plan I have on the winter which involves the big three of Northern Hemisphere population areas that are affected by the change in seasons, the Far East and Europe.
I think we may be able to call this the battle of Britain or France. For these areas will be on the western side of what looks to be a cold winter for much of eastern Europe... roughly from Germany east with a center of colder than normal by more than 2c in the European part of Russia. The theory is simple... a lot of blocking and a colder-looking north Atlantic as temperatures are dropping throughout the north Atlantic between 40 and 50 north while remains warm farther north. Modeling is agreeing with the idea of enhanced blocking this year which makes sense given the amount of SO2 that has been dumped into the air over the last year by northern latitude volcanoes. In addition, the ending of the era of warming is taking place as the PDO has shifted cold. All this is co-ordinated with arguments for blocking even as a weak El Nino, which is the result of many things and not the driver... fades in the winter and spring.
While temperatures in the West may be near normal, they will do so by greater-than-normal variance. I look for three or four strong outbreaks of arctic air due to strong Scandinavian highs to push back into the northwest part of Europe. The center of the cold, in the middle of winter, will be farther east though.
As far as snow, the idea of Atlantic origin air masses trying to come back into big highs may tip the balance for greater-than-normal snow in the northwest in spite of a winter that is drier than normal in France, England and Scandinavia. The real fun may be farther south, where enhanced precip and the chance for colder-than-normal air could mean snow to the Mediterranean once or twice this winter. I think the skiing season will be great for the Alps with greater-than-normal snow in those areas as precip is above normal and temps near or below normal.
So we appear to have an "interesting" debate going on here as this forecast would argue that most Europeans will think this winter was colder, like last winter, than some other sources with more official clout are saying. But time will tell. My take is a cold winter from Germany east in Europe and a battle winding up near normal farther west, but with some big ticket cold air masses that come back west from the cold pole, which will be something that recalls days of cold as far as eastern Europe cold.
I hope to do a free site shot on this the next couple of days, so be looking.
Ciao for now.
I have sent my private clientele an update on the U.S. winter, which continues to ride along the lines I have been outlining for them since early summer and we went public on July 15. One can't help but notice more U.S. forecasters thinking that the U.S. winter in the South and East is going to be cold. However, this is part of a bigger grand plan I have on the winter which involves the big three of Northern Hemisphere population areas that are affected by the change in seasons, the Far East and Europe.
I think we may be able to call this the battle of Britain or France. For these areas will be on the western side of what looks to be a cold winter for much of eastern Europe... roughly from Germany east with a center of colder than normal by more than 2c in the European part of Russia. The theory is simple... a lot of blocking and a colder-looking north Atlantic as temperatures are dropping throughout the north Atlantic between 40 and 50 north while remains warm farther north. Modeling is agreeing with the idea of enhanced blocking this year which makes sense given the amount of SO2 that has been dumped into the air over the last year by northern latitude volcanoes. In addition, the ending of the era of warming is taking place as the PDO has shifted cold. All this is co-ordinated with arguments for blocking even as a weak El Nino, which is the result of many things and not the driver... fades in the winter and spring.
While temperatures in the West may be near normal, they will do so by greater-than-normal variance. I look for three or four strong outbreaks of arctic air due to strong Scandinavian highs to push back into the northwest part of Europe. The center of the cold, in the middle of winter, will be farther east though.
As far as snow, the idea of Atlantic origin air masses trying to come back into big highs may tip the balance for greater-than-normal snow in the northwest in spite of a winter that is drier than normal in France, England and Scandinavia. The real fun may be farther south, where enhanced precip and the chance for colder-than-normal air could mean snow to the Mediterranean once or twice this winter. I think the skiing season will be great for the Alps with greater-than-normal snow in those areas as precip is above normal and temps near or below normal.
So we appear to have an "interesting" debate going on here as this forecast would argue that most Europeans will think this winter was colder, like last winter, than some other sources with more official clout are saying. But time will tell. My take is a cold winter from Germany east in Europe and a battle winding up near normal farther west, but with some big ticket cold air masses that come back west from the cold pole, which will be something that recalls days of cold as far as eastern Europe cold.
I hope to do a free site shot on this the next couple of days, so be looking.
Ciao for now.
