What a complete mess the models are making of the outlook. It's been a long time since we've seen this much disagreement at 96hrs, the ECM, UKMO and GME all trend one way, the GFS and NOGAPS the other then the GEM does look similar to the ECM at 96hrs but then cuts a shortwave se'wards and builds the block westwards afterwards.
However theres normally only one major model that will continue run after run with the wrong synoptics within 120hrs and from experience thats the GFS, the ECM does have its wobbles but normally its one run, if its gone wrong it quickly reverts back. Having said all this perhaps they're all wrong!
It's hard to believe that the models can't agree on what the trough does in the west Atlantic at only 96hrs. Overall then the chance for a proper easterly fades but what exactly will happen will have to wait till tomorrow, hopefully!
bron netweather
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