Kaartje heeft Rowan al gepost, maar hierbij de tekst die op onze omgeving betrekking heeft:
A level 1 was issued for Netherlands, northern Belgium, Denmark, extreme SW Sweden and southern Norway mainly for excessive convective rainfall, strong wind gusts and lesser extent for tornadoes.
... Netherlands, northern Belgium, Denmark, extreme SW Sweden and southern Norway ...
A frontal system associated with a PVA maximum/deep upper low moves across the North sea in the afternoon. Convective activity is expected mostly along or just ahead of the surface cold front, where several hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE will be available. In rather highly sheared environment, a couple of low topped supercells will be possible, bringing the threat for strong wind gusts. Near 10 m/s of low-level (mostly) unidirectional shear and very low SREH limits the tornado threat, but a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out given the amount of LL shear and locally enhanced helicity.
In the evening hours, storms will likely cluster into one or two larger systems/MCS and move across Denmark and into SW Scandinavia overnight on Wednesday. With still marginal instability available and at least 20 m/s of deep-layer shear, a well organized MCS with bowing segments is possible. For this reason, a level 1 was also extented towards the southern Norway and extreme SW Sweden.
