Ik zal de belangrijkste elementen eruit halen:
So this increased +ve momentum transport and associated +ve frictional torque response registers immediately as a fairly significant spike in atmospheric angular momentum tendency.
- A mechanism that leads towards programming the highly amplified pattern as advertised by numerical models within the atmospheric circulation, as according to the spatial poleward propagation of those +AAM anomalies over time.
The 'however' that is coming is that the adage is "what goes up must come down".
Catalysts as they are for major pattern changes, there is no indication (to me at least) that the present tropical convection cycle matches those that have been a prequel to some of the classic early to mid winters. Meaning by this that the tropical signal aborting and losing amplitude sooner as seems currently likely than on those occasions implies a faster reverse scrubbing out of more sustained +ve momentum to follow that may, in turn, prevent the upscaling of the switch to an ever colder and colder pattern as some of the extended numerical model fantasy, filling the cracks of these pages, panders to.
This forcing sequence roughly translates to the possibility of Scandinavian ridge and euro trough morphing into mid latitude Atlantic /UK ridge as the Pacific pattern re-amplifies somewhat (GWO Phase 8/0) following the relaxing of the +ve momentum phasing, switching some energy back into polar jet flow
Het ingezette patroon van meandering is veroorzaakt door hoog AAM. Dat zal 10-14 dagen duren, waarna de effecten van een dalende AAM doorkomen (meer zonaliteit). De fantasierijke koude output is dan ook onwaarschijnlijk. Transitie naar Atlantisch/UK hoog.
-> Ik vind het bijzonder dat ze de atmosfeer zo goed kan lezen (niet 100% foutloos uiteraard).