Omdat extreme scenario's leuk zijn om door te rekenen maar niet realistisch en dus meer doemdenken dan realistisch zijn. Terwijl de realistische scenario's al zeker aanzetten tot actie...
https://www.climateneutralgroup.com/en/news/five-future-scenarios-ar6-ipcc/:
Scenario – Next Best: 1.8C by 2100
SSP1-2.6:
In the next-best scenario, global CO2 emissions are cut severely, but not as fast, reaching net-zero after 2050. It imagines the same socioeconomic shifts towards sustainability as SSP1-1.9. But temperatures stabilize around 1.8C higher by the end of the century.
Scenario 3 – Middle of the road: 2.7C by 2100
SSP2-4.5:
This is a “middle of the road” scenario. CO2 emissions hover around current levels before starting to fall mid-century, but do not reach net-zero by 2100. Socioeconomic factors follow their historic trends, with no notable shifts. Progress toward sustainability is slow, with development and income growing unevenly. In this scenario, temperatures rise 2.7C by the end of the century.
Scenario 4 – Dangerous: 3.6C by 2100
SSP3-7.0:
On this path, emissions and temperatures rise steadily and CO2 emissions roughly double from current levels by 2100. Countries become more competitive with one another, shifting toward national security and ensuring their own food supplies. By the end of the century, average temperatures have risen by 3.6C.
Scenario 5 – Avoid at all costs: 4.4C by 2100
SSP5-8.5:
This is a future to avoid at all costs. Current CO2 emissions levels roughly double by 2050. The global economy grows quickly, but this growth is fuelled by exploiting fossil fuels and energy-intensive lifestyles. By 2100, the average global temperature is a scorching 4.4C higher.
