CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Mon 25 Jul 06:00 - Tue 26 Jul 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 24 Jul 17:54 (UTC)
FORECASTER: TUSCHY
*knip*
...Northeastern France, Belgium, the Netherlands and parts of Germany ...
Main feature of interest will be a depression which could develop somewhere over the English Channel...Models don't agree very well how strong this system will be and how far east it will move...Global models show strong modification of low level wind field and up to 15m/s low level shear over parts of Belgium, Netherlands and north west Germany.... Steep low level lapse rates and slightly cooler mid levels could provide about 200 J/kg of instability and scattered TSTMs should develop. Deep layer shear between 15 and 20m/s will be enough for some storm organisation and main risk will be a locally severe wing gust threat. Exact development of depression important for tornado threat but low LCLs,0-1km SRH values up to 200 m**2/s**2 and those strong shear values would be conducive for a few tornadoes...Uncertainness of system and insolation inhibit issuing a SLGT ATM.
*knip*
Bron: www.estofex.org
Maar goed er is al wel een SLGT uitgevaardigd voor het Alpengebied. Voor meer info verwijs ik naar de ESTOFEX-site.
