Re : Met Röder moet je gewoon rekening houden
Bericht van: Marcus (Sleidinge) - moderator - , 04-11-2003 23:18
Je moet er inderdaad rekening mee houden, ik denk niet dat Röder over één nacht ijs gaat om zijn voorspelling wereldkundig te maken.
Alleen is het spijtig, zoals Rob zegt, dat hij zijn methodiek niet kenbaar maakt. Heeft waarschijnlijk schrik om zijn geheime recept prijs te geven.
Het is al gezegd, de luchtdrukafwijkingen zijn berekend per maand en zeggen dus niets over de uitersten die kunnen optreden.
Bill Giles maakt zijn methodiek wel wereldkundig, maar echter niet in detail. Hier is zijn uitleg:
Although now retired, after many years in the Met Office I have vast experience of how the atmosphere works and of other influences at work on our planet's weather. Combine this with the technology now available, predicting weather out to many days ahead, and I believe you have a formidable combination. It presents the best chance of an accurate forecast for up to 90 days ahead.
Now, don't take my views as gospel. There's no way I can tell you what the weather will be like four weeks today at two o'clock in the afternoon. If I could I'd be in the Bahamas as a seriously wealthy man! However, what I can do is give you my thoughts on what weather patterns will affect the country at the time, and how I imagine the weather will be during the period.
So how is it done? Well, each day I look at and analyse computer models produced by the major weather services, both UK and abroad. These models run out to many days ahead and are combined with other weather forecasting centres around the world to give me what is known as an 'ensemble forecast'. This gives me a good indication as to the likely weather patterns over the coming few weeks.
By monitoring these patterns each day I can see how consistent the models are from day to day, which gives me confidence in the forecast.
As we get further ahead the whole process becomes a little trickier. I use a combination of techniques including looking at the weather over previous years, as far back as the 1700s. By combining this with climatological data and then looking at the global sea temperatures taken each day from the satellite, I can then get an idea as to how I think the pattern of weather will develop over the British Isles in the days and weeks ahead.
Now, this method isn't perfect by any means, and as a scientist I must err on the side of caution. However, the combination of technoloby and historical records marries well and produces forecasts I am proud of. And not a solar storm or piece of sea weed in sight!!
Alleen is het spijtig, zoals Rob zegt, dat hij zijn methodiek niet kenbaar maakt. Heeft waarschijnlijk schrik om zijn geheime recept prijs te geven.
Het is al gezegd, de luchtdrukafwijkingen zijn berekend per maand en zeggen dus niets over de uitersten die kunnen optreden.
Bill Giles maakt zijn methodiek wel wereldkundig, maar echter niet in detail. Hier is zijn uitleg:
Although now retired, after many years in the Met Office I have vast experience of how the atmosphere works and of other influences at work on our planet's weather. Combine this with the technology now available, predicting weather out to many days ahead, and I believe you have a formidable combination. It presents the best chance of an accurate forecast for up to 90 days ahead.
Now, don't take my views as gospel. There's no way I can tell you what the weather will be like four weeks today at two o'clock in the afternoon. If I could I'd be in the Bahamas as a seriously wealthy man! However, what I can do is give you my thoughts on what weather patterns will affect the country at the time, and how I imagine the weather will be during the period.
So how is it done? Well, each day I look at and analyse computer models produced by the major weather services, both UK and abroad. These models run out to many days ahead and are combined with other weather forecasting centres around the world to give me what is known as an 'ensemble forecast'. This gives me a good indication as to the likely weather patterns over the coming few weeks.
By monitoring these patterns each day I can see how consistent the models are from day to day, which gives me confidence in the forecast.
As we get further ahead the whole process becomes a little trickier. I use a combination of techniques including looking at the weather over previous years, as far back as the 1700s. By combining this with climatological data and then looking at the global sea temperatures taken each day from the satellite, I can then get an idea as to how I think the pattern of weather will develop over the British Isles in the days and weeks ahead.
Now, this method isn't perfect by any means, and as a scientist I must err on the side of caution. However, the combination of technoloby and historical records marries well and produces forecasts I am proud of. And not a solar storm or piece of sea weed in sight!!
"Koersen, dat is stampen en afzien tot ge niet meer weet van welke parochie ge zijt." (Briek Schotte)
