Al eerder gaf MetOffice aan dat er weinig zekerheid is momenteel (dus nog meer dan anders). In de meest recente bespreking van NOAA komt dit ook naar voren. GFS0u verwerpen zij overigens. Het is verleidelijk om te kijken naar de opers op 144 en te denken dat enige overeenkomst wel een grotere betrouwbaarheid in houdt. Mij lijkt het beste om nog even te wachten met dit soort conclusies. In deze precaire settings luistert het allemaal veels te nauw (dat wil dus ook niet zeggen dat er winter aankomt!)
Voor wie de letters schreeuwerig vind overkomen, dat heeft te maken met hoe zij dit schrijven, met copy paste krijg je dit resultaat.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
305 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012
VALID 12Z THU JAN 26 2012 - 12Z SUN JAN 29 2012
INCREASED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD ALLOW FOR TROUGHING TO STICK AROUND ACROSS THE LAINS/MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS IDEA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE LARGE ISSUES. THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN AGGRESSIVELY KNOCK DOWN THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH ALLOWS A MUCH QUICKER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION IN THE EAST. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MID-CONTINENT FAVORS RIDGING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SO DISCOUNTED THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE OTHER BIG ISSUE IS HOW TO HANDLE THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW NEAR TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW THE QUICKEST OF THE GUIDANCE /SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS A COUPLE DAYS AGO/ WHILE THE
00Z GEFS MEAN IS THE SLOWEST /SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF A COUPLE DAYS AGO/. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM COVERED A VAST AMOUNT OF REAL ESTATE...WITH SOLUTIONS BETWEEN CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
FRIDAY...PLACING THE 00Z ECMWF ON THE QUICK SIDE OF THE SPREAD.
THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET MAKE FOR A NICE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION
HERE...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TOO MUCH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO BE IGNORED.
DUE TO THE ABOVE...USED A 00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION WEDNESDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND A SIMPLER
00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND MAINTAIN SOME FORM OF CONTINUITY.
ROTH
A
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