Ja, bekend terrein 
Netweather stratosfeer topic hier geïntroduceerd. Net als Matt Hugo Mbt SSW, al aangegeven dat deze wel eens te laat zou kunnen komen, dus met Matt eens. Als deze al zou komen, combinatie van wQBO en lage zonneactiviteit (ondanks een opleving!), maakte het op voorhand moeilijk.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2903015
Call me a pessimist this morning, but I'm getting to the point now where patience is slowly running out and we are getting to the point in this winter where it is almost getting too late. Yes I am sort of going back on my own words and comments at times with regards to using last March as an example, but this potential SSW this winter continues to be within a region of the forecast time period that does keep getting put further and further ahead. Charts like this from the latest ECMWF for the end of January and now clearly nearly the 1st of February are still a long way from anything of worth;
...again for anything of interest it remains in the far reaches of the GFS model run and clearly this chart, for example, has potential but it still shows an almost intact vortex and no doubt would still equate to some sort of general westerly flow for the UK;
Clearly that chart is now for the 6th of February. Last February and particularly March was, without question, an exception to the rule. To get such a cold synoptic pattern and broader flow sustained like we did during the second half of March and obviously the well known blizzard around the 21st/22nd will, unlikely, be achieved again this winter.
It's not as though the expected state of the vortex for this winter was unknown, clearly Ed pointed this out many, many weeks ago. What I am simply trying to highlight here, whether it be agreed with or disagreed with is that time is running out for anything of worth and the much needed SSW or at least a more pronounced disruption to the vortex to at lease bring a possible stop to this relentless westerly flow continues to be progged in a time frame that never really seems to get to present day.
There's always some hope for a week or two of cold weather clearly during the 2nd half of February, but by that time, as ever, it will really have to be something noteworthy otherwise any lying snow, particularly at lower levels and across southern areas of the UK never lasts and a -5C 850mb N or NW'ly just won't do the trick in my opinion.
Not throwing in the towel as such just yet, but still, time is running out and I'll be getting to a point where it'll be a case of damage control and limitation and then move on to spring and hope to the stratospheric gods above that next winter doesn't resemble anything like this "winter"...note the air quotes!
Netweather stratosfeer topic hier geïntroduceerd. Net als Matt Hugo Mbt SSW, al aangegeven dat deze wel eens te laat zou kunnen komen, dus met Matt eens. Als deze al zou komen, combinatie van wQBO en lage zonneactiviteit (ondanks een opleving!), maakte het op voorhand moeilijk.http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2903015
Call me a pessimist this morning, but I'm getting to the point now where patience is slowly running out and we are getting to the point in this winter where it is almost getting too late. Yes I am sort of going back on my own words and comments at times with regards to using last March as an example, but this potential SSW this winter continues to be within a region of the forecast time period that does keep getting put further and further ahead. Charts like this from the latest ECMWF for the end of January and now clearly nearly the 1st of February are still a long way from anything of worth;
...again for anything of interest it remains in the far reaches of the GFS model run and clearly this chart, for example, has potential but it still shows an almost intact vortex and no doubt would still equate to some sort of general westerly flow for the UK;
Clearly that chart is now for the 6th of February. Last February and particularly March was, without question, an exception to the rule. To get such a cold synoptic pattern and broader flow sustained like we did during the second half of March and obviously the well known blizzard around the 21st/22nd will, unlikely, be achieved again this winter.
It's not as though the expected state of the vortex for this winter was unknown, clearly Ed pointed this out many, many weeks ago. What I am simply trying to highlight here, whether it be agreed with or disagreed with is that time is running out for anything of worth and the much needed SSW or at least a more pronounced disruption to the vortex to at lease bring a possible stop to this relentless westerly flow continues to be progged in a time frame that never really seems to get to present day.
There's always some hope for a week or two of cold weather clearly during the 2nd half of February, but by that time, as ever, it will really have to be something noteworthy otherwise any lying snow, particularly at lower levels and across southern areas of the UK never lasts and a -5C 850mb N or NW'ly just won't do the trick in my opinion.
Not throwing in the towel as such just yet, but still, time is running out and I'll be getting to a point where it'll be a case of damage control and limitation and then move on to spring and hope to the stratospheric gods above that next winter doesn't resemble anything like this "winter"...note the air quotes!
Op de prachtige stratosfeerthread op het Netweatherforum (zo te zien bekend terrein voor je) las ik dat Matt Hugo min-of-meer de handdoek voor deze winter in de ring gooide. Als er al iets zou kunnen gebeuren deze winter, dan te weinig en te laat.
Je moet er niet aan denken dat we, na deze herfst zonder einde (GD daargelaten), wat ontijdige natte sneeuwsituaties krijgen tot diep in April. Dat zou intens onterecht en niet eerlijk zijn en dan wil ik gewoon mijn geld terug. Maakt niet uit van wie.
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
