https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/we-won-t-know-if-solar-geoengineering-is-working
Here’s the problem. There’s already uncertainty about the sensitivity of climate to carbon concentrations. When the temperature rises, it’s hard to tell if it’s the carbon or just random fluctuations in the weather. Sprinkling sulfur particles in the upper atmosphere would add another source of uncertainty—making it extremely difficult to tell why the temperature is rising or falling at any particular time. If solar geoengineering isn’t allowed, “only the first two of these possibilities exist and so learning evolves more quickly,” the authors write.
“We find a surprising result: implementing SGE [solar geoengineering] actually slows learning about both SGE effectiveness and climate sensitivity, resulting in a less-informed decision,” the paper says.
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