Re: Voor degenen die geen moeite hebben met de engelse taal
Bericht van: Ben (Waterland) , 18-08-2023 22:15Zie de link die ik reeds aangaf:
Richard Seager is a climate scientist at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory. Educated in the UK, he’s a Professor of Ocean and Climate Physics at Columbia. Seager is definitely not a fringe climate denier. But Professor Seager says the UK and North Europe are warmer than expected for their latitude not because of the Gulf Stream or any ocean current. Here is his explanation in a post called “Climate mythology: The Gulf Stream, European climate and Abrupt Change”:
Dr. Richard Seager, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory.
“Using observations and climate models we found that, at the latitudes of Europe, the atmospheric heat transport exceeds that of the ocean by several fold. In winter it may even by an order of magnitude greater. Thus it is the atmosphere, not the ocean, that does the lion’s share of the work ameliorating winter climates in the extratropics. We also found that the seasonal absorption and release of heat by the ocean has a much larger impact on regional climates than does the movement of heat by ocean currents.
Seasonal storage and release accounts for half the winter temperature difference across the North Atlantic Ocean. But the 500 pound gorilla in how regional climates are determined around the Atlantic turned out to be the Rocky Mountains. Because of the need to conserve angular momentum, as air flows from the west across the mountains it is forced to first turn south and then to turn north further downstream. As such the mountains force cold air south into eastern North America and warm air north into western Europe. This waviness in the flow is responsible for the other half of the temperature difference across the North Atlantic Ocean.”
Saying “ocean heat transport contributes a small warming across the basin” Richard Seager suggests a slowdown of the Gulf Stream would: “introduce a modest cooling tendency.” If true, that would be great news for our UK listeners. But it does not address an increase in storminess and storm strength, or the large drop in precipitation for European agriculture and other global impacts.
Seager has published several papers in support of his insistence that atmospheric changes dominate over ocean current influences like AMOC. He does not say the UK and North Europe will not cool, just not as much as predicted by ocean modelers. It shows the level of uncertainty about what will really happen when the Atlantic Overturning goes into its off state. Personally I think the OECD scientists are well aware of atmospheric science and probably took these factors raised by Seager into account – and still found dangerous cooling for Europe in the waters ahead. But I am not an expert.
Seager’s peer-reviewed paper on this is “Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe’s mild winters?”
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