In de NW Pacific gaat het snel nu met Yagi (12W)

Bericht van: Nathan (ZO Azie/Oceanie) , 04-09-2024 07:58 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1224prog.txt

TY 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE OVER CHINA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. A SLIGHT JOG TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 36 AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND THE STEERING GRADIENT ORIENTATION SHIFTS TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HAINAN ISLAND, PASS THROUGH THE HAINAN STRAIT AND EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, ALL DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. LANDFALL NEAR HAIPHONG, VIETNAM IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING INLAND THEREAFTER. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, AND FURTHER RI IS ANTICIPATED. THE LATEST MSI SUGGESTS A BIT OF DRY AIR LINGERS TO THE NORTHWEST, LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SOMEWHAT BY NOT ALLOWING FOR THE EYEWALL TO COMPLETELY CLOSE OFF. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS DRY AIR WILL VACATE THE PREMISES IN THE SHORT-TERM, AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AND VORTEX SYMMETRIZATION. AS SOON AS THIS PROCESS COMPLETES, EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AT MOST, THE SYSTEM WILL EMBARK ON ANOTHER ROUND OF RI. THE CURRENT FORECAST POINTS CALL FOR A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS AT TAU 36 AND TAU 48. IN REALITY, A HIGHER PEAK IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THESE TWO POINTS, AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE RI GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE HAINAN STRAIT DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND AN INCREASE IN VWS. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN TAU 120

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 31-32 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=12W&product=vis
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 04-09-2024 07:59

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